Politiki katalisiw + sɔrɔko ɲɛtaa-Demand Dynamics bɛ ɲɛtaa danmadɔw bila The PVC Industry kɔnɔ

A kuntaala jan kɔnɔ, Sinuwa ka PVC baarakɛyɔrɔ bɛ sinsin ni jɔnjɔn jɔnjɔnw ye walasa ka ɲɛtaa ɲuman sɔrɔ. A fɔlɔ, "anti-involution" politiki siratigɛ la, n’o ye kuran sɔngɔ danfaralenw ye ani jagokɛlaw ka impositi seginni bɔli, o bɛna teliya ka seko ni dɔnko nafama bɔli teliya. Filanan, diɲɛ PVC seko kura bonya bɛna to dɔgɔya la san nataw kɔnɔ, o bɛna kɛ sababu ye ka ɲɛtaa sɔrɔ dɔɔnin dɔɔnin sɔrɔ-ɲini balansi la. Sabanan, Siniwajamana ka PVC baarakɛyɔrɔw ka diɲɛ seleke naani ka ɲɔgɔndan bɛ ka bonya, ni yɔrɔba bɛ yen walasa ka dɔ fara a kan jagokɛyɔrɔw la.

K’a sababu kɛ jamana kɔnɔ "anti-involution" politiki juguya ye ka taa a fɛ, k’a ta san 2026 zanwuyekalo tile 24 na ka se tile 31 ma, Guo Tai Futures ka ɲininikɛlaw taara bɔ Shaanxi, Ningxia ani Inner Mongolia-PVC-bɔyɔrɔba saba la Sinuwa jamana na. O kun tun ye ka politiki jɔnjɔnw nɔ lakika jateminɛ i n’a fɔ kuran sɔngɔ danfaralenw ani jagokɛlaw ka impositi jiginni bɔli PVC baarakɛyɔrɔ la, ani ka seko ni dɔnko dɔgɔyali ɲɛtaa sɛgɛsɛgɛ, tɔnw ka baarakɛcogo, ani ɲinini lakikaw sɔrɔli yɔrɔ-yɔrɔ-ɲini lakikaw.Sɛgɛsɛgɛli kɛra mara minnu kan, olu bɛ PVC seko tɔni miliyɔn 7,45 bɔ, min bɛ kɛ 25,55% ye Sinuwa jamana ka PVC seko bɛɛ lajɛlen na ani 36% ye jamana ka PVC seko la min sinsinnen bɛ kalisiyɔmu karɔbɔli- kan. U fana bɛ tɔni miliyɔn 22,89 minɛ, o ye 60,88% ye Sinuwa ka kalisiyɔmu karɔbɔli seko bɛɛ lajɛlen na. O tɛmɛnen kɔ, nin mara ninnu ye kuran sɔngɔko danfaralenw ka yɔrɔ pilotiw ye, o b’a to ɲininikɛla ka misali bɛ kɛ izini in jirabaga ye kosɛbɛ.

Nin ɲinini in sinsinnen tun bɛ politiki belebele fila kan : kuran sɔngɔ danfaralenw ani PVC jagokɛlaw ka impositi seginni bɔli. I n’a fɔ fɛɛrɛ jɔnjɔnw "anti-involution" politiki hukumu kɔnɔ, u fila bɛɛ ye nɔba bila PVC baarakɛyɔrɔ musaka sigicogo la, jagokɛcogo la ani seko ɲagaminen na.

Kuran sɔngɔ danfaralenw ko la, Shaanxi mara ka izini ni kunnafoniko minisiriso ye lajɛ sɛbɛn dɔ bɔ san 2025 desanburukalo la, k’a laɲini ka kuran sɔngɔ danfaralenw waleya cogo labɛnnen na k’a daminɛ zuluyekalo tile fɔlɔ la, ka ɲɛsin fanga-sɛnɛko wolonwula ma, minnu bɛ tali kɛ kalisiyɔmu karɔbɔli ni PVC la. Sigida PVC ni kalisiyɔmu karɔbɔli seko bɛ Shaanxi la, o bɛ kɛ 7,18% ani 9% ye jamana bɛɛ lajɛlen na, wa politiki in bɛna kalisiyɔmu karɔbɔli musakaw wuli k’u ɲɛsin ɲɔgɔn ma.Ka kɛɲɛ ni sɛgɛsɛgɛli in ye, a ka c’a la kosɛbɛ ko politiki in bɛna waleya, wa a bɛ jusigilan sigi jamana bɛɛ kɔnɔ. Ni a waleyali kɛra, PVC bɔli musakaw bɛna wuli Shaanxi dugu kɔnɔ ni yuan 70 ye tɔni kelen kɔnɔ, o ka dɔgɔ ni jateminɛw ye minnu bɛ kɛ ni hakilina ye. Baarakɛda minnu bɛ se ka nɔ in kunbɛn ni kɔɔri-kuran hakɛ caman cili ye ani kɛnɛma sanni ye min musaka ka dɔgɔ -kalisiyɔmu karɔbɔli la ka bɔ Mongoli kɔnɔna na, o bɛ na ni nɔ lakika danma ye sigida PVC dilannikɛlaw la.Jɛkulu minnu ɲininkara, olu bɛnna a kan caman na ko kuran sɔngɔko danfaralen tɛ marabolo politiki ye, nka jamana ka izini ladilanni fɛɛrɛ ye, min bɛna kɛ baarakɛminɛn nafama ye walasa ka sariyaw sigi sen kan fanga-baarakɛda minnu bɛ baara caman kɛ ani sugu yiriwali-kɔrɔlen gɛlɛyaw izini musakaw kan.

Zanwuyekalo tile 9, nafolo minisiriso ni jamana ka impositi ɲɛmɔgɔso jɛra ka...Laseli min kɛra ka ɲɛsin fɛnw ladilanni ma, minnu bɛ tali kɛ fɛnw bɔli la jamana kɔkan, ka ɲɛsin fototalan ni fɛn wɛrɛw ma, min bɛ PVC resin, PVC plastikibali ani PVC plastikilen don k’a jɛya ladilanni siratigɛ la.O politiki in ye "rush export" ko dɔ daminɛ waati kunkurunnin- kɔnɔ jamana kɔnɔ. Sisan, PVC feerelaw fanba ye komandiw feere ka kɔn-feere fo ka se feburuyekalo ma, ni baarakɛda dɔw yɛrɛ ye dɔ bɔ jamana kɔnɔ jago la walasa ka u sinsin jamana kɔkan feereli kan, o bɛ dɛmɛ don bɔli hakɛw la.Ni a nɔ bila kurunbokari waati bolodalenw na, a jirala ko PVC feereli bɛna fanga dɔgɔya marisikalo daminɛ na. Ni sanji waati farala ɲɔgɔn kan Azi saheli-kɔrɔnfɛla ni saheliyanfan fɛ, jagokɛlaw bɛna don ladilanni waati la awirilikalo kɔfɛ, ni jigin bɛ se ka to senna fo zuluyekalo.Ka bɔ izini siratigɛ la, jagokɛyɔrɔw taasibila bɔli bɛna kɛ sababu ye ka diɲɛ PVC sɔngɔw wuli, ka marabolow ka jagokɛcogo kura daminɛ waati kunkurunnin kɔnɔ. Nka, waati jan kɔnɔ, n’i y’a jateminɛ ko Siniwa jamana ka musaka ni seko nafaw bɛ yen, o politiki bɛna kɛ sababu ye ka jagokɛlaw ka jagokɛyɔrɔw bonya ani ka fɛn dilannenw caman sɛnɛ. O waati kelen na, a nɔ bɛ se ka kɛ jamana kɔnɔ etilɛni-based PVC dilannikɛlaw la, o dan ye, k’a sɔrɔ baarakɛda minnu musaka ka bon- Henan, Shandong ani mara wɛrɛw la, olu bɛ se ka degun sɔrɔ seko ni dɔnko bɔli la.

Jɛkuluw ka baarakɛcogo siratigɛ la, PVC baarakɛda minnu bɛ Shaanxi, Ningxia ani Inner Mongolia, olu bɛ wariko kɛnɛya sabati caman na, bɔnɛ si ma sɛbɛn. San 2025 desanburukalo cɛmancɛ-ka se-laban dɔrɔn de la, baarakɛda dɔw ye wariko bɔnɛ sɔrɔ waati kunkurunnin kɔnɔ, k’a sababu kɛ PVC ni soda caustic sɔngɔw dɔgɔyali kojugu ye. O waati kɔnɔ, jago minnu kɛra sɔngɔ dɔgɔman na-PVC min bɛ yuan 4000/ton duguma ani soda jilama min bɛ yuan 2000/ton duguma-, olu tun man ca, wa baarakɛda minnu y’u jaabi ni u jɔli ye sɔngɔw la ani ka dɔ bɔ komandi bolonɔbila la.Sɛgɛsɛgɛli waati kɔnɔ, PVC SG-5 sɔngɔ seginna ka tɛmɛ 4500 kan yuan/ton, ani soda caustic sɔngɔ tora 2100–2300 yuan/ton cɛ, o kɛra sababu ye ka izini nafa segin a cogo la.

Seko ni dɔnko ɲɛnabɔli siratigɛ la, izini in bɛ marabolow ka danfara jɛlen jira. Ka da nafaw kan kɔɔri ni fanga sɔrɔyɔrɔw la, worodugu-tlebi-yanfan mara kɛra jamana musaka basigilen ye PVC dilanni na. Sɛgɛsɛgɛli kɛra baarakɛda minnu bɛɛ kan, olu dalen tun b’a la ko nin mara in tɛna kɛ fɔlɔ ye ka seko dɔgɔyali ye.PVC dilannikɛlaw minnu sinsinnen bɛ kalisiyɔmu karibidi- kan Henan, Shandong ani mara wɛrɛw la, minnu doni bɛ u kan ni musaka caman ye, a ka c’a la kosɛbɛ ko u bɛ seko ni dɔnko kulu fɔlɔw cɛma minnu bɛna ban.Ka kɛɲɛ ni baarakɛda suguya ye, jamana-PVC dilannikɛlaw bɛ gɛlɛyaw sɔrɔ caman na i n’a fɔ yɛrɛ-nafolo dɛsɛ, nafa dɔgɔyali ni waribon musaka caman, ani fɛnmarataw degunba min bɛ sɔrɔ -fɛn wɛrɛw kan; dɔw fana bɛ tɔɔrɔ sɔrɔ jagokɛcogo barikama fɛ. O ni ɲɔgɔn cɛ, tɔnba kɛrɛnkɛrɛnnenw bɛ baarakɛcogo ɲuman mara ani ka sugu lajɛ jigiya la, min bɛ dɛmɛ ni izini cakɛda dafalenw jɛli ye, musaka nafa minnu bɛ sɔrɔ u yɛrɛ ka kuran sɛnɛyɔrɔw la, ani sɔngɔko ni feereli fɛɛrɛw bɛrɛbɛrɛ.

PVC baarakɛda 8 minnu kofɔlen don nin ɲinini in kɔnɔ, olu ye jamana-ta, dankan ani cɛmancɛ jamana ka baarakɛyɔrɔw (CSOE) ye, ni baarakɛcogo danfaraba bɛ u ni ɲɔgɔn cɛ.Jamana ka baarakɛyɔrɔw fanba bɛ tɔɔrɔ sɔrɔ izini cakɛda dɛmɛ dafabali fɛ ani baarakɛcogo degunba fɛ. A ka c’a la, tɔnw jigi bɛ sugu nata kan, k’a sababu kɛ musaka kɔlɔsili ye ani baarakɛcogo caman ye. Hali ni CSOEw ka fɛn dilannen dɔw bɛ boli ni bɔnɛ ye, u bɛ baara sabatilenw mara ni nafaw ye fɛn dilannenw labɛncogo dafalen-kategori la ani wariko la, ka jigiya hakilina minɛ ni hakilisigi ye sugu ko la.

Ni an ye politiki nɔfɛkow, tɔnw ka baarakɛcogo ani -yɔrɔ suguya suguyaw fara ɲɔgɔn kan, PVC sugu bɛna "kɔrɔta ka kɔn foroba seli ɲɛ, dɔgɔya seli kɔfɛ" cogoya jira waati kunkurunnin kɔnɔ. Kuntaalajan kɔnɔ, a bɛna ɲɛtaa danma ye min bɛ dɛmɛ ni politikitɔnw ka fɛnɲɛnɛmafagalan fila ye ani sɔrɔko-demand dynamics ɲɛtaa.

PVC sugu ye "sɔgɔsɔgɔninjɛ sugu fitinin" ye ka kɔn forobaciyɛn seli ɲɛ, min ɲɛminɛna ni fɛn koloma naani ye:A fɔlɔ, kalisiyɔmu karɔbɔli musakaw jiginni ye musaka dɛmɛni di.Filanan, PVC jatebɔ bɛɛ lajɛlen kɛra jamana kɔnɔ sɛnɛfɛnw dilannikɛlaw cɛ, o tora dɔgɔya la, ni sannifeere ka kɛ dɔgɔkun 2–4 ye. Fɛn minnu bɔra ka kɔn foroba seli ɲɛ, olu tun bɛ ɲini ka feere ka ban, o kɛra sababu ye ka baarakɛdabaw bila jɔyɔrɔba la sɔngɔko kumaɲɔgɔnya la.Sabanan, "kɔrɔtɔ ka taa jamana wɛrɛw la" ka kɔn jagokɛlaw ka impositi jiginni ɲɛ, o tora ka sɔngɔw sinsin.Naaninan, soda caustic sɔngɔ dɔgɔyali ye nafa don PVC bɔli musaka fan fɛ.

Nka, foroba seli kɔfɛ, sugu bɛna degun caman sɔrɔ. Faan dɔ fɛ, jagokɛlaw ka jago bɛna Dɔgɔya "rush export" finɛtiri laban kɔfɛ. Faan wɛrɛ fɛ, jigiya minnu bɛ sɔrɔ jamana kɔnɔ fɛnmarataw bɔli la ani jamana kɔnɔ ɲininiw fanga dɔgɔyali, n’o farala ɲɔgɔn kan ni jagokɛlaw ka impositi jiginni ye, o bɛna girinya sɔngɔw kan.

Kuntaala jan kɔnɔ, Sinuwa ka PVC baarakɛyɔrɔ bɛ jɔnjɔn ɲuman sabatilenw mara.A fɔlɔ, "anti-involution" politiki minnu bɛ senna, n’o ye kuran sɔngɔ danfaralenw ni jagokɛlaw ka impositi seginni bɔli ye, o bɛna teliya ka seko ni dɔnko nafama bɔli teliya, ka izini seko ni dɔnko sigicogo ɲɛ, ani ka dɔ fara suguya hakɛ kan ka tɛmɛn seko ni dɔnko kan.A filanan, san Sinuwa ka PVC seko bɔli bɛna se tɔni 895.000 ma, k’a sɔrɔ diɲɛ seko kura bɛna kɛ tɔni 705.000 dɔrɔn ye, o bɛ kɛ sababu ye ka sɔrɔko dɔgɔyali daminɛ. Diɲɛ kɔnɔ PVC seko bonya dɔɔnin ani seko baarakɛbaliw bɔli teliya la san nataw kɔnɔ, o bɛna kɛ sababu ye ka ɲɛtaa sɔrɔ dɔɔnin dɔɔnin sɔrɔ-ɲini balansi la.Sabanan, Sinuwa PVC baarakɛyɔrɔ bɛ waso musaka ni seko nafa jɛlenw na. Jamana kɔkan seko ni dɔnko gɛlɛyalenw cɛma, Sinuwa ka PVC baarakɛyɔrɔw ka diɲɛ seleke naani ka ɲɔgɔndan bɛ ka bonya ka taa a fɛ, o bɛ se ka kɛ sababu ye ka jagokɛlaw ka seko caman di.

Kuma bɛɛ la, fɛnw sɔrɔli-ɲini fanga ɲɛtaa ani "anti-involution" politikitɔnw bɛ dɛmɛ fila di PVC baarakɛyɔrɔ ma, k’a ka ɲɛtaa kuntaalajan-taamacogo ɲuman sinsin.